http://totallyhk.scmp.com/thkarts/health/ZZZN97TH8JE.html
By Robin Kwong
Delays in combating air pollution can be deadly, sometimes literally so. By the most optimistic projections, Hong Kong's air quality won't significantly improve until 2010, the deadline set by the government for local power companies to meet emission reduction targets.
Likewise, while several large-scale power plants, fuelled by relatively cleaner liquefied natural gas, are to be commissioned in Guangdong by mid 2007, how much less coal and oil will be burnt as a result depends on energy demand in the province.
In the meantime, Hong Kong will still be paying the costs. But how much will air pollution cost us in these intervening five years?
At the South China Morning Post's request, the University of Hong Kong's department of community medicine has worked out a rough estimate of life years lost as a result of the wait.
"We have estimated the effect if we could remove all air pollution right now compared with if we removed it in five years - that is, what is the difference caused by the delay," said the department's Dr Sarah McGhee.
Measuring just the impact on mortality rates for people aged 40 and above, Professor McGhee said the cost amounted to 150,000 life years, or about three weeks per person. This was a conservative estimate, partly because it did not take into account the impact on younger people.
Life years, moreover, may be just the tip of the iceberg in cost evaluation, because it does not factor in ill health and loss to quality of life. "We can't estimate all of this effect yet, but we know it must be substantial," she said.
"Since we will not remove all air pollution, we would only save some proportion of that effect in real life, but it gives us an idea of what we might aim for eventually."
